Global Economic Analysis

War’s Impact on the Global Economy

The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is influencing not only regional security in the Middle East but also the global economy. Developments around Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz illustrate how the war could affect energy markets, trade, financial stability, and inflation worldwide.

By Klara Svensson

Strategic Policy Paper

Iran’s Fragmentation and China’s Energy Security: Strategic Implications for Eurasian Connectivity

Agenda Nexus Think Tank
By Melvin Jakobsson

Iran sits at the crossroads of Middle Eastern energy flows and Eurasian trade corridors. For China, the stability of this geographic hinge is strategically significant. If Iran were to destabilize, Beijing’s efforts to diversify energy routes and reduce maritime vulnerability could face serious constraints, increasing reliance on sea lanes dominated by Western naval power.

Strategic Analysis

Iran After the Islamic Republic

Fragmentation, Federalism, or Disintegration?

Iran stands at a historic crossroads as the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy erodes and the question of what comes next grows urgent. With deep ethnic diversity, fragmented opposition forces, and competing visions for the state, Iran’s post-regime future will be shaped not only by the fall of an old system, but by whether a new political order can accommodate pluralism, prevent fragmentation, and avoid violent disintegration.

By Oden Aghapoor

Policy Brief

From Green Claims to Real Impact

Green Growth Requires Courage and Transparency

A Strategic Sustainability Analysis

By Team Agenda

Sustainability is now a business imperative—but without transparency and accountability, green growth risks losing credibility. This brief outlines why measurable impact, stronger standards, and courageous leadership are essential for a trustworthy green economy, according to Agenda Nexus.

Policy Brief

Iran’s Future Is Plural

Iran’s Future, Opposition Legitimacy, and the Rights of National Minorities

Agenda Nexus Think Tank

Iran is a multiethnic and multilingual country where minority rights have long been suppressed. Granting political legitimacy to Reza Pahlavirisks excluding these communities and undermining democratic principles. A sustainable future for Iran requires inclusive dialogue and respect for all peoples.

Image description:

The image shows Mohammad Reza Pahlavia few hours before the Persian army launched an attack and occupation of South Azerbaijan, which resulted in the deaths of more than 30,000 political activists and civil society figures.

Policy Analysis

Agenda Nexus Think Tank – Geopolitics & Foreign Policy Analysis

Iran’s Uncertain Future: Ethnic Dynamics, Regional Powers, and the Geopolitics of Change

Iran stands at a critical crossroads where economic crisis, public unrest, and deep-rooted ethnic dynamics intersect with intensifying regional geopolitics. As internal pressures mount and external actors quietly reposition, the country’s future will depend not only on political change, but on whether a more inclusive and representative state structure can emerge from a period of growing uncertainty.

Hybrid Warfare and Grey Zone Conflicts

Cyber Operations, Disinformation, and Economic Coercion in Modern Geopolitics

Agenda Nexus Think Tank – Strategic Analysis

Conflict in the 21st century is increasingly fought in the shadows, where cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic pressure replace conventional military force. These hybrid and grey zone tactics allow states to weaken rivals while avoiding open war, targeting infrastructure, institutions, and public trust. Understanding and countering these methods has become essential for protecting democratic resilience and maintaining strategic stability in an era of persistent geopolitical competition.

Research Report

**What If NATO Weakens?

Implications for Sweden’s Security in an Era of Alliance Uncertainty**

By the Agenda Nexus Editorial Team

Sveriges Natomedlemskap skulle skapa trygghet i en orolig tid. Men vad händer om alliansens enighet försvagas, USA drar sig tillbaka och Ryssland testar västvärldens beslutsamhet? I ett läge där kollektiv säkerhet inte kan tas för given måste Sverige stärka sitt eget försvar, sin diplomatiska roll och sin inre motståndskraft för att möta nya säkerhetshot.

Policy Brief

Transatlantic Tensions and the Greenland Crisis

Agenda Nexus Think Tank — Strategic Insight
January 2026

On 23 January 2026, tensions over Greenlandescalated into a transatlantic diplomatic crisis after provocative U.S. statements challenged the island’s sovereignty. The incident has strained relations between the United States, Denmark, and the European Union, intensified debates over Arctic security, and highlighted the urgent need for strategic autonomy, multilateral cooperation, and sustainable investmentin the region. This brief examines the geopolitical, security, and policy implications of the Greenland crisis for Europe, NATO, and global stability.