Global Geopolitical Economic Policy Brief
The global economy entered a new phase of volatility in spring 2026 as escalating conflict in the Middle East triggered an էնergy shock, disrupted trade flows, and raised the risk of stagflation, forcing policymakers and markets to reassess near-term stability.
Prepared by Agenda Nexus experts in macroeconomics, geoeconomics, and international security.
The Latest Research
Geopolitical & Security Analysis
Military Effectiveness vs. Strategic Limits
Beyond Tactical Strikes: The Strategic Limits of Military Power in Modern Asymmetric Conflict
Global Financial & Strategic Analysis
Financial Markets and Strategic Uncertainty
Markets Under Pressure: Financial Volatility and the Challenge of Strategic Uncertainty in a Fragmenting World
Policy Brief
Peace at Risk in Caucasus
Fragile peace between Azerbaijan and Armenia faces rising internal opposition, geopolitical rivalry, and strategic energy competition threatening regional
Peace in the Caucasus is closer than it has been in decades, yet serious risks remain. Internal political tensions in Armenia, Russian geopolitical ambitions, and competition over strategic transport corridors threaten to turn a historic opportunity into renewed conflict.
Prepared by Agenda Nexus experts in geopolitics and energy security
Strategic geopolitical analysis
China’s Strategic Balancing Act
How the U.S.–Israel–Iran conflict reshapes Beijing’s geopolitical calculus, altering risks, opportunities, and long-term strategic positioning in a shifting global order
The escalating conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is reshaping global power dynamics in ways that both challenge and benefit China. While Beijing faces economic and security risks, it also gains strategic breathing room as Washington diverts attention and resources elsewhere.
Prepared by Agenda Nexus Experts, Defense and Security Group
Strategic brief
Managed Escalation Diplomacy
U.S.–Iran relations reflect a fragile balance where pressure and diplomacy coexist to manage risk and preserve regional stability.
Recent U.S.–Iran dynamics reflect a complex interplay of confrontation and diplomacy. Despite persistent tensions, both sides continue dialogue, signaling calibrated competition aimed at managing risks rather than triggering conflict or achieving full de-escalation.
Prepared by Agenda Nexus experts specializing in geopolitics and energy security.
Policy Brief – April 2026
Region:South Caucasus
Focus: Armenia, Azerbaijan, Russian influence, regional stability
Armenia faces key elections as Russian influence grows, with reformists seeking peace and opposition pushing conflict
As Armenia approaches critical elections, it faces a choice between peace and war. Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan promotes regional cooperation and economic recovery, while a resurgent pro-Russian opposition threatens renewed conflict and regional stability
Prepared by Agenda Nexus experts in geopolitics and energy security
Geopolitical Energy Security Analysis
Energy Transition as Security Imperative
Why climate and energy policies are now central to national security strategies
Series on Uzbekistan’s Transformation
Research Report
Uzbekistan’s Reform Path
From Periphery to Regional Leadership Through Economic, Social Reform, Liberalization, Dialogue and Strategic Stability in Central Asia
Since 2017, Uzbekistan has undergone a notable transformation under President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, shifting from isolation toward openness. Through economic liberalization, social reforms, and regional engagement, the country is redefining its trajectory while balancing modernization with political and security constraints.
Produced by Agenda Nexus experts with a focus on global development and Central Asia.
Policy Brief
From Green Claims to Real Impact
Green Growth Requires Courage and Transparency
Prepared by Agenda Nexus Experts in climate and development.
Strategic Defense and Security Assessment
Ceasefire Without Strategic Resolution
Ceasefire reveals unresolved goals and rising escalation risks in the Middle East.
Prepared by Agenda Nexus Experts, Defense and Security Group
Policy Brief:
Economic Security in the Age of Strategic Technologies
Technological Power and Economic Security
Economic security is now closely tied to technological strength. As advanced technologies reshape supply chains, military capabilities, and political influence, nations face a critical challenge: how to safeguard open economies while avoiding strategic dependence and technological coercion in an increasingly competitive global order.
Prepared by the Agenda Nexus Economy Experts Group
A geopolitical policy analysis article
A New Global Power Order Emerges
Escalating great power rivalry, institutional erosion, and systemic instability are accelerating calls for new mechanisms of global coordination and crisis governance
The year 2026 marks a period of deep geopolitical uncertainty as the post-Cold War order continues to erode. With intensifying great power rivalry and increasingly paralyzed institutions, policymakers are revisiting alternative models for global governance and crisis management.
Prepared by Agenda Nexus experts, Geopolitics and International Affairs Group
Research Report
Trump’s Narrow Exit Strategy
Control of Hormuz and the Gulf now defines Trump’s only viable path to claim victory
Donald Trump faces a high-stakes geopolitical dilemma in the White House, where war costs, domestic pressure, and global energy dynamics converge. His political survival increasingly depends on turning a risky military campaign into a decisive, controllable outcome before economic and electoral consequences escalate beyond repair.
"This report has been prepared by Agenda Nexus experts in geopolitics and energy security."
Strategic Brief
Yuan at Hormuz’s Gate
China gains leverage as Iran weaponizes maritime access, reshaping energy and testing U.S. resolve.
Iran’s emerging control over the Strait of Hormuz is evolving from a military pressure point into an economic chokepoint. By introducing yuan-based and alternative payment mechanisms, Tehran is not only monetizing disruption—but potentially enabling China to expand its financial and geopolitical influence at America’s expense.
This strategic brief has been prepared by Agenda Nexus experts specializing in economics, energy security
Policy Brief – Defense and Security | Agenda Nexus Think Tank
Europe’s Strategic Defense Independence
Russia’s war in Ukraine and shifting signals from U.S. leadership have exposed Europe’s long-standing security dependence. While the United States remains a key partner, future support cannot be assumed. Europe must urgently build independent defense capacity to deter threats, respond to crises, and ensure long-term stability on its own terms.
This policy brief has been prepared by Agenda Nexus Think Tank experts specializing in defense and security.
Global Economic Analysis
War’s Impact on the Global Economy
The conflict involving the United States, Israel, and Iran is influencing not only regional security in the Middle East but also the global economy. Developments around Kharg Island and the Strait of Hormuz illustrate how the war could affect energy markets, trade, financial stability, and inflation worldwide.
By Klara Svensson
Strategic Policy Paper
Ground Operation Looms
Rising tensions signal limited US ground action targeting Iran’s strategic assets
The Iran conflict is entering a dangerous phase as military buildup, strategic signaling, and diplomatic deadlock increase the likelihood of limited US ground operations. Key energy infrastructure and regional actors raise risks of escalation, instability, and global economic disruption.
By Oden Aghapoor and Klara Svensson
Strategic Policy Analysis
NATO at Risk
Middle East Escalation Reveals Deepening NATO Divisions and the Emerging Conditional Nature of U.S. Security Commitments to European Allies
Text and Photo: Johan Nilsson
Policy Brief: Energy Security in a New Geopolitical Era
Can Aliyev Secure Europe’s Energy Future?
The West seeks stable energy sources beyond dependence on authoritarian regimes like Russia and Iran in an increasingly volatile global landscape.
This article is produced by Agenda Nexus experts specializing in energy security and Central Asia.
March AI Strategic Brief: Recommended Reading
AI Strategic Brief:
Strategic Implications for Society, Policy, and Global Innovation
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
March 2026
Geopolitics and Foreign Policy
Strategic Pressure on Iran
Trump signals willingness to end conflict despite Hormuz closure while pushing military objectives and shifting financial burden to Arab allies
Emerging signals from Washington indicate a dual-track strategy toward Iran: intensified military pressure paired with pragmatic openness to de-escalation. President Donald Trump appears willing to conclude the conflict once core objectives are achieved, even if key geopolitical risks—such as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz—remain unresolved.
By Klara Svensson
Research Report
By the Editorial Team
EU’s Military Space Ambitions Clash with Reality
European Military Space Power in a Contested Domain: Investments, Operational Gaps, and the Road to Autonomy
Europe is rapidly increasing its investment in military space capabilities, driven by growing security concerns and dependence on the United States. While at least $109 billion is already planned through 2030, achieving meaningful burden-sharing—or full autonomy—will require significantly more funding, stronger coordination, and long-term strategic commitment.
Strategic Politics Analysis
The Quiet Power Struggle
Åkesson vs. Kristersson and the Battle for Sweden’s
By Maja Jönsson
Strategic Policy Analysis
Of Contemporary Swedish Politics Ahead of the 2026 Election
Sweden’s Political Realignment in Flux
By Editor-in-Chief Oden Aghapoor
An analytical expert interview with a clear political position
Iran’s Crisis Opens a Defining Crossroads: Peace, Rights — or an Independent South Azerbaijan
Amid Iran’s deepening crisis, Oden Aghapoor outlines a defining choice: peace and mutual respect—or self-determination. South Azerbaijan rejects Pahlavi’s return, demands its rights, and stands firm—South Azerbaijan will never be threatened or occupied, and its future will be decided by its people.
Interview by Klara Svensson
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Research Report
Doomsday Warning from Moscow
Russian “Doomsday” Signaling and Strategic Risk Narratives in a Volatile Global Security Environment
Russian officials have issued stark warnings signaling the potential for severe global escalation, framing current geopolitical tensions in near-apocalyptic terms. While not assigning responsibility, such rhetoric highlights growing instability, rising risk perceptions, and the possibility that ongoing conflicts could expand beyond regional boundaries into a broader and more dangerous confrontation.
By the Editorial Team
Analytical Report
At the Heart of Sweden:
A United Front Against Religious Extremism
At the heart of Sweden’s democratic landscape, the seminar on Countering Religious Extremism and Promoting Interfaith Dialogueconvened policymakers, religious leaders, and security experts to exchange experiences, highlight effective strategies, and strengthen international cooperation aimed at promoting tolerance, safeguarding democracy, and building resilient, peaceful societies.
By the Editorial Team
Strategic Analysis
Iran After the Islamic Republic
Fragmentation, Federalism, or Disintegration?
Iran stands at a historic crossroads as the Islamic Republic’s legitimacy erodes and the question of what comes next grows urgent. With deep ethnic diversity, fragmented opposition forces, and competing visions for the state, Iran’s post-regime future will be shaped not only by the fall of an old system, but by whether a new political order can accommodate pluralism, prevent fragmentation, and avoid violent disintegration.
"The article is produced by Agenda Nexus experts specializing in Middle East and Iran affairs."
Securing AI in Public Systems
AI and Cybersecurity in the Public Sector (Sweden & EU, 2026)
As governments accelerate the adoption of AI, cybersecurity risks are growing in both scale and complexity. Weak governance structures, limited technical expertise, and increasing reliance on external vendors leave critical public systems exposed—making coordinated, forward-looking policy action essential to safeguard infrastructure, data, and public trust.
BY TEAM AGENDA
Strategic Foreign Policy Analysis
The Caucasus: Europe’s New Energy Keystone
What is unfolding today—and what still remains insufficiently addressed in practice—was already outlined by Erik Ullenhag a year ago. He emphasized the need to strengthen Europe’s energy security and reduce dependence on authoritarian powers.
His message framed energy policy not as a technical issue, but as a strategic geopolitical priority—one that is now proving both urgent and unavoidable.
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
By Oden Aghapoor
Policy Brief
Europe’s Role in Global Stability
By: This policy brief was developed by the Agenda Nexus Mixed Expert Group, integrating academic research, diplomatic experience, and policy analys
January Research Brief: Recommended Reading
Strategic Policy Paper
Iran’s Fragmentation and China’s Energy Security: Strategic Implications for Eurasian Connectivity
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
By Melvin Jakobsson
Iran sits at the crossroads of Middle Eastern energy flows and Eurasian trade corridors. For China, the stability of this geographic hinge is strategically significant. If Iran were to destabilize, Beijing’s efforts to diversify energy routes and reduce maritime vulnerability could face serious constraints, increasing reliance on sea lanes dominated by Western naval power.
Policy Brief
Iran’s Future Is Plural
Iran’s Future, Opposition Legitimacy, and the Rights of National Minorities
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
Iran is a multiethnic and multilingual country where minority rights have long been suppressed. Granting political legitimacy to Reza Pahlavirisks excluding these communities and undermining democratic principles. A sustainable future for Iran requires inclusive dialogue and respect for all peoples.
Image description:
The image shows Mohammad Reza Pahlavia few hours before the Persian army launched an attack and occupation of South Azerbaijan, which resulted in the deaths of more than 30,000 political activists and civil society figures.
Global Geopolitics in Transition
Europe at a Strategic Crossroads: Power, Security, and the New Geopolitical Orde
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
Policy Analysis
Agenda Nexus Think Tank – Geopolitics & Foreign Policy Analysis
Iran’s Uncertain Future: Ethnic Dynamics, Regional Powers, and the Geopolitics of Change
Iran stands at a critical crossroads where economic crisis, public unrest, and deep-rooted ethnic dynamics intersect with intensifying regional geopolitics. As internal pressures mount and external actors quietly reposition, the country’s future will depend not only on political change, but on whether a more inclusive and representative state structure can emerge from a period of growing uncertainty.
Policy Brief:
Economic Security in the Age of Strategic Technologies
Why Technology Has Become a Core National Security Issue
Economic security has become inseparable from technological power. As advanced technologies shape supply chains, military capability, and political influence, states face a defining challenge: how to protect open economies while preventing strategic dependence and technological coercion in an increasingly contested global order.
Hybrid Warfare and Grey Zone Conflicts
Cyber Operations, Disinformation, and Economic Coercion in Modern Geopolitics
Agenda Nexus Think Tank – Strategic Analysis
Conflict in the 21st century is increasingly fought in the shadows, where cyber attacks, disinformation campaigns, and economic pressure replace conventional military force. These hybrid and grey zone tactics allow states to weaken rivals while avoiding open war, targeting infrastructure, institutions, and public trust. Understanding and countering these methods has become essential for protecting democratic resilience and maintaining strategic stability in an era of persistent geopolitical competition.
Research Report
**What If NATO Weakens?
Implications for Sweden’s Security in an Era of Alliance Uncertainty**
By the Agenda Nexus Editorial Team
Sveriges Natomedlemskap skulle skapa trygghet i en orolig tid. Men vad händer om alliansens enighet försvagas, USA drar sig tillbaka och Ryssland testar västvärldens beslutsamhet? I ett läge där kollektiv säkerhet inte kan tas för given måste Sverige stärka sitt eget försvar, sin diplomatiska roll och sin inre motståndskraft för att möta nya säkerhetshot.
%20och%20Magdalena%20Andersson%20(S)%20p%C3%A5%20en%20gemensam%20presstr%C3%A4ff%20om%20Nato.%20Foto%20Lars%20Schr%C3%B6derTT.jpg?etag=W%2F%224af28-19c13888cd0%22&sourceContentType=image%2Fjpeg&ignoreAspectRatio&resize=548%2B308&extract=48%2B39%2B499%2B229&quality=85 "Trump threatens Musk")
Sweden 2026: Governance at a Crossroads
Coalition Scenarios, Policy Tensions, and Institutional Stability
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
A strategic Research Brief by Oden Aghapoor
Policy Brief
South Caucasus: Peace, Connectivity, and a New Geopolitical Landscape
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
By Oden Aghapoor— Strategic Insight
January Research Brief: Recommended Reading
Strategic Analysis
The War in Ukraine — Dynamics, Risks, and Pathways to Stability
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
March 2026
Policy Brief
Transatlantic Tensions and the Greenland Crisis
Agenda Nexus Think Tank — Strategic Insight
January 2026
On 23 January 2026, tensions over Greenlandescalated into a transatlantic diplomatic crisis after provocative U.S. statements challenged the island’s sovereignty. The incident has strained relations between the United States, Denmark, and the European Union, intensified debates over Arctic security, and highlighted the urgent need for strategic autonomy, multilateral cooperation, and sustainable investmentin the region. This brief examines the geopolitical, security, and policy implications of the Greenland crisis for Europe, NATO, and global stability.
Research Report:
Iran – Political Dynamics, Ethnic Tensions, and the Path to Sustainable Governance
Agenda Nexus Think Tank
January 2026
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